One third of Albertans show support for independence, new poll suggests

A new poll released on Monday finds around a third of Albertans would support independence.

Mainstream Research says the poll shows that 30 per cent support the current citizen-led petition calling for Alberta to separate from Canada, while 58 per cent are against it.

Excluding undecided voters increases support to 34 per cent, but the percentage of Albertans opposed to independence jumps to 68 per cent.

The divide further increased when asked about an economic union with the United States, meaning an exchange of U.S. and Canadian dollars, with only 28 per cent showing support.

Mainstreet Research also found that 17 per cent of those polled prefer former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney as the most effective spokesperson against independence. Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi, who is tied with Prime Minister Mark Carney, had around 13 per cent.

On the flip side, Premier Danielle Smith, who says Alberta works best within a united Canada, would be the most effective spokesperson for independence at 18 per cent. Additionally, around 46 per cent say she should campaign against separation, while 20 per cent said she should.

Meanwhile, the Alberta independence issue is “not top of mind” for most voters, as only nine per cent indicated it was a top concern. Rather, the cost of living (26 per cent) and healthcare (22 per cent) were the leading issues.

This comes after another poll from the Angus Reid Institute revealed well over half of Albertans would “definitely” vote to keep the province in Canada if a referendum on separation were held.

Additionally, the recent poll asked how Albertans would vote in a provincial election, and the United Conservative Party saw around 41 per cent, compared to 33 per cent for the NDP. On the federal election front, the Conservative Party sits at around 48 per cent, while the Liberal Party is only three points back at 45 per cent.

“The independence questions appears to be having unintended consequences for Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives,” Quito Maggi, the president and CEO of Mainstreet, said in the poll’s release.

“While Danielle Smith is asking Albertans to choose between Alberta and Canada, voters are re-examining their choice between Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives and Mark Carney and the Liberals.”

The sample consisted of 1504 adults, all 18 years of age or older and living in Alberta. The survey was conducted from Tuesday, Feb. 10 to Thursday, Feb. 12, using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones.

Mainstreet Research says the survey is intended to represent the voting population in Alberta.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.5% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding