VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – While there’s a lot of financial uncertainty for many people in the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, there may be reason for optimism.
At least two economists believe Canada’s economy can bounce back quickly, once the pandemic ends.
“The good news is that if the coronavirus public health issue gets resolved, I think there will be a fast recovery,” says James Brander, Professor at the Sauder School of Business at UBC. “I think the governments are doing the right things to keep in place the possibility of a fast recovery, so there’s no reason why we can’t bounce back quickly.”
The main question, of course, is when that will happen.
“There’s some reason for optimism that there could be a sharp expansion but that depends very much on the public health situation and that of course is very uncertain,” adds Brander.
Mark Thompson, professor emeritus of Industrial Relations at the Sauder School of Business at UBC agrees a fast recovery is possible.
“I mean, the economy was in pretty good shape when this all happened and I think the demand is still there and the industries that have been forced to close can reopen,” he says. “In the past, recessions we’ve had tended to be sharp but not long lasting and I think that’s what’s going to happen here.”
However, despite the glimmer of hope, both economists admit the current situation is bleak, and there will still be struggles ahead before we’re able to bounce back.
“We’re seeing a sharper downturn than we’ve seen probably since the 1930s,” says Brander. “For the past week there will be in Canada approximately 1 million jobless claims. That’s approximately double the previous record.”
Brander adds financial help coming from the federal government will help people stay afloat.
“There’s enough in place for people to survive. Not feel good, but survive for a few months and we hope that things are looking better after two or three months,” he says.
Thompson also believes help coming from some provinces and Ottawa is a good start, but thinks more will be necessary depending on how long the pandemic lasts.
“The government, I think, is acting fairly vigorously and the focus on the employees who are losing their jobs and the small businesses who may collapse if this goes on is all very good,” he says. “I don’t think anybody believes that these measures are sufficient or that there won’t be more measures required in the future.”
Thompson adds a lot of what happens in the next few months will depend on the length and severity of the crisis.
“I guess if I knew that, I would make a lot of money in the stock market or something, if I could predict the future,” Thompson says.