Alberta economy projected to outpace rest of Canada, but separatism debate poses risk: ATB
Posted October 7, 2026 2:59 pm.
Alberta’s economy is expected to continue growing faster than the rest of the country over the next two years, but uncertainty surrounding a possible separation referendum could dampen investment and slow momentum, according to a new outlook.
ATB Financial is forecasting Alberta’s real GDP will grow by 2.6 per cent in 2026, followed by 2.3 per cent growth in 2027.
“So, there is referendum uncertainty right now, we think that’s weighing but that’s being offset by other factors like higher oil prices, people keep moving to the province, 20 consecutive quarters of interprovincial inflows,” said ATB chief economist Mark Parsons.
Parsons said Alberta’s economy continues to benefit from population growth, strong oil prices and increasing investment in sectors such as technology, aviation and food manufacturing.
He added that planned pipeline development to Canada’s West Coast could provide an even greater boost to economic growth if projects move ahead.
“I’ve been kind of cautious on this, I’ve been waiting to see if we’ll actually see these projects proceed. But if we do, we’re in a period of higher growth,” Parsons said.
Despite the positive outlook, Parsons said uncertainty tied to Alberta’s separation debate is causing some businesses to hold off on investments in the province.
Former premier Jason Kenney said Alberta voters have an opportunity to send a message to investors during the upcoming October referendum.
“I am a message-sending voter on Oct. 19. I want to send a message that we are open for business and that we are a stable jurisdiction, that we are not going to launch ourselves into a woodchipper of uncertainty and economic pain,” Kenney said.
Kenney argued Alberta’s challenge in the coming years could be managing rapid growth rather than generating it, but said maintaining investor confidence will depend on projecting stability.
