Poll suggests Alberta voter sentiment shifting with UCP, NDP deadlocked

A new poll suggests Alberta’s political landscape has tightened significantly, with the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) and Opposition New Democrats (NDP) now deadlocked in voter support.

The Janet Brown Opinion Research survey, commissioned by the CBC, found both the UCP and NDP at 41 per cent support provincewide.

The results represent an eight-point drop for the UCP since April and a five-point gain for the NDP. Six months ago, the UCP appeared to hold a comfortable lead.

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi pointed to seat projections associated with the poll as evidence that momentum is shifting toward his party.

“A poll that came out today shows that the Alberta New Democrats win a pretty strong majority election if it were held today,” Nenshi said. “I’m happy about that.”

The poll comes just weeks after the NDP secured a byelection victory in Calgary-Shaw, a result some observers see as a sign of growing support for the party in Calgary.

Mount Royal University associate professor of policy studies Lori Williams said several factors may be driving the shift in voter sentiment.

“Partly because people are beginning to pay closer attention to politics,” Williams said. “They’re starting to think about how they’re going to vote in a referendum that’s less than a month away.”

Some Albertans interviewed for the story expressed frustration with the provincial government and the upcoming referendum.

“Absolutely,” one voter said when asked about the issue. “I think it’s a waste of time and money and I don’t think it’s doing anything for our country.”

Another Albertan offered a different perspective.

“Well I didn’t particularly like what the NDP did in Alberta,” the voter said. “And I’m happier with Danielle Smith.”

Despite the poll showing the NDP drawing even with the UCP, Williams cautioned against reading too much into the results this far from an election.

“Any opposition party that wants to pick up on this dissatisfaction that we’re seeing reflected in this poll needs to do more than criticize the government,” Williams said. “They need to provide an alternative vision.”

Nenshi argued the UCP is responsible for the decline in its support.

“But Albertans know the only reason they’re in this position is because of them,” he said.

The survey also captured concerns about key issues facing the province. When asked what the UCP could do to earn their vote, one Albertan said the government should “put more funding into public healthcare and prioritize it.”

With roughly a year remaining before Albertans are expected to head to the polls, political observers note that much could change before election day. The Oct. 19 referendum vote and the UCP’s annual general meeting in November could further influence voter sentiment in the months ahead.