36% of Albertans and majority of UCP voters want to leave Canada: new poll

Premier Danielle Smith laid out a path for a referendum on separation in Alberta last week, even though she has been adamant that she does not support the movement. So, how many Albertans actually want to leave Canada?

A new poll from Angus Reid Institute states that at least 36 per cent Albertans are leaning toward a vote to leave Canada, that number is 65 per cent amongst UCP voters, a majority.

Alberta’s premier admitted this week in an interview with CTV that a separation referendum – is an “outlet” for angry conservatives.  She hopes that the new legislation that will make it easier to vote will keep the UCP united. But some say it is already too late for that.

“The UCP has decided that they are Canada first, not Alberta first. And so, there are many, many UCP supporters from every part of the province who have decided that the Republican Party best fits their values,” says Cameron Davies, leader of the Republican Party of Alberta.

Davies, a former UCP organizer, is now travelling the province, holding events and signing up members who do not agree with Smith’s position that Alberta should stay in Canada.

“I am not entirely sure how you can lead a province and a party if 65 per cent of your membership and your base supports something that the leadership of your party does not,” added Davies.

Political scientist Duane Bratt expects a referendum vote will happen in 2026 and it will be bitterly divisive amongst Albertans. He believes the issue will drive a wedge in the UCP, saying some even want to join Donald Trump’s America.

“There is another segment of the party that goes and says this is the stupidest thing we have ever heard. That our concern is about low taxes and keeping the NDP out of office, not running away from Canada,” Bratt told CityNews.

“Well, how do you keep all of those people in control? So that’s why there’s so many contradictions with what Smith has been saying.”

Aside from the Oilers, Alberta separation is clearly the talk of the province.

According to the Angus Reid poll, a majority of those who are leaning to vote leave in a hypothetical referendum say they would be more likely to vote stay if the federal government built an east to west pipeline, removed the emissions cap on oil and gas production, and repealed Bill C-69, which requires resource projects to be assessed for environmental, health, social and economic impacts and ensure they respect Indigenous rights.

One Edmontonian telling CityNews that Alberta should leave Canada. “We should absolutely leave. Economically, we should separate ourselves from those who do not want us to have success economically.”

Another said leaving Canada is not practical. “There are no advantages to it, and I think Canada is a pretty good country. People like Danielle Smith and her supporters have always had petty grievances and they always will,” he said.

Another person saying, “I stand with our Indigenous peoples in saying that there is treaty land here in Alberta, we are on Indigenous land and I agree it would be a huge violation of treaty rights.”

The UCP’s Bill 54 is still making its way through the legislature, but when it passes and comes into effect, it will take just 177,000 signatures to trigger a referendum.