BMO poll says 63% express recession concerns, 48% believe economy will weaken

TORONTO — As tariff threats loom, a new Bank of Montreal survey finds 63 per cent of Canadians expressed concerns about the potential for a recession in the next 12 months.

The online poll also found 48 per cent of those surveyed believed the economy will weaken over the next year, while 19 per cent expect it to improve.

Despite the pessimism among respondents, BMO Capital Markets senior economist Robert Kavcic said the global economy is expected to grow this year.

“While the trade concerns are front and centre for many Canadians and should be taken seriously, global economic growth is expected to continue and we expect underlying Canadian economic growth to improve in 2025, barring serious and sustained tariff action,” he said in a statement.

Rising prices and the cost of living continue to be top concerns for Canadians, the survey said.

More than two-thirds of Canadians said inflation is having a negative impact on their current financial situation.

Forty-four per cent of respondents said they were spending an extra $100 to $300 per month on basic living expenses while 38 per cent reported spending more than $300 extra every month.

Sixty-one per cent of Canadian respondents said inflation is currently high and they fear prices will continue to rise.

“On the inflation front, recent data also indicates price growth has stabilized around the Bank of Canada’s target. Canadians can expect the Bank of Canada to continue to reduce interest rates modestly further in 2025,” Kavcic said.

Meanwhile, the survey points out last year was “generally positive” for investors.

“While economic headwinds, including the prospect of tariffs may be a concern for Canadian households, we still see room for the major markets to continue making gains in 2025,” said Brent Joyce, chief investment strategist and managing director at BMO Private Investment Counsel, in a statement.

Joyce said investors should remember the Canadian stock market is not the Canadian economy “and it is often the case that markets climb a wall of worry.”

The online survey of 1,500 adult Canadians was conducted by Pollara from Nov. 8 to Nov. 18, 2024.

The poll does not include a margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 20, 2025.

Companies in this story: (TSX: BMO)

Ritika Dubey, The Canadian Press