What could Donald Trump’s tariffs mean for Alberta beef?

As Canadians anxiously wait to see if incoming U.S. president Donald Trump will follow through on his tariff threats on exports — industries are bracing for the specific impact it will have on them.

What could the changes mean for Alberta beef? Agriculture in the province is used to swings in the weather and changing commodity prices, but what about tariffs?

The beef industry in Alberta is a big player in trade with the U.S. and the president and CEO of the Alberta Cattle Feeders’ Association says producers are feeling a lot of stress right now.

“People are definitely worried watching the news,” says Janice Tranberg. “We just had a webinar with our members to make sure they are aware of what’s going on, but also to hear their responses and understand how it is going to impact them.”

Cattle born and raised in the U.S. sometimes make their way to Canada. Conversely, cattle raised in Canada may be sent to the U.S. for processing before returning to Canada.

Tranberg says a full 25 per cent tariff on exports could add up to as much as $1,000 an animal.

“When you consider that Alberta has around 1.4 million animals in the province, that is a pretty hefty sum,” she says.

Tranberg says talks with the government are ongoing to try and increase supports that have not been touched in 20 years.

“What are the mechanisms for that support from the government? Of course we don’t know,” she says.

For consumers, there is a chance that beef prices drop across the country due to an oversupply, according to Tranberg, but the question remains if producers can handle that oversupply.

She says the best strategy for farmers right now is to get the best forward contracts they can get due to the uncertainty clouding the future of the industry.

The Calgary Chamber of Commerce has said the 25 per cent levy on Canadian goods would be detrimental to Alberta’s economy.

Premier Danielle Smith revealed Wednesday that Alberta is refusing to sign on to a joint statement from all other premiers and the prime minister on a plan to respond to the tariff threats, saying the province will not agree to export tariffs on energy and other products.

Trump has promised to impose the tariffs shortly after he takes office Monday. He has also suggested they are part of a larger strategy to annex Canada through “economic force.”

If he sets the tariffs at 25 per cent, Canada’s response would be to impose counter-tariffs worth roughly $37 billion, and possibly follow up with another $110 billion in tariffs. If the duties are lower, Canada’s tariff response would be more modest.