Lethbridge-West byelection first true test of Nenshi leadership, expert says

Wednesday’s byelection in Lethbridge-West will act as a litmus test for the Alberta NDP’s new leader, a political scientist estimates.

The vote will fill a vacancy created this summer when the NDP’s Shannon Phillips resigned. Phillips held Lethbridge-West since 2015, winning it again last year by about 2,500 votes.

Polling site 338 Canada pegs the NDP’s chances of winning the riding at 99 per cent.

But political scientist Lori Williams says it’s not a sure thing for the New Democrats, and she feels the NDP need the win more than the United Conservative Party does.

“We’ve got a new leader with the NDP. This will sort of be a test of Naheed Nenshi’s ability to connect outside of Calgary and Edmonton,” said Williams of Mount Royal University. “If he’s not able to pick up this seat, it presents challenges to this great hope that he represented for an alternative to the UCP, a government in waiting, a leader with momentum.

“All of that will be called into question.”

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On the ballot are two well-known names in the area.

The NDP’s Rob Miyashiro was a city councillor and ran last election, losing in Lethbridge-East by about 600 votes.

“The last one-and-a-half years of Danielle Smith as the premier have shown that she’s not fighting for everyone and she’s not for everyone in the province,” Miyashiro told CityNews. “And I think we need to maintain that orange spot in the puddle of all that blue in southern Alberta.”

John Middleton-Hope, who is running for the UCP, is a current city councillor and a former police chief in Lethbridge. The party said Middleton-Hope had no time for an interview Tuesday.

Layton Veverka is also on the ballot. He’s a power engineer running for the Alberta Party, which grabbed 425 votes in the riding last election.

The last time an Alberta byelection was held so close to Christmas was on Dec. 14, 2017.

Nenshi had repeatedly urged Premier Danielle Smith to call the byelection once both his party and the governing UCP had their candidates in place in September. Nenshi said Smith waited until the last second to call the race because, according to him, lower voter turnout only benefits the UCP.

Smith has said that she was waiting for Nenshi — who does not have a seat in the legislature — to declare his intentions to run for a seat so that two byelections could be called at once.

READ MORE: Where will Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi run?

Elections Alberta says more than 6,000 advance ballots have already been cast.

Polling stations are open Wednesday from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m.

–With files from The Canadian Press