Is Justin Trudeau’s political future at stake in next month’s Montreal byelection?

The Liberals and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have a lot riding on next month’s byelection in Montreal, according to political watchers.

The Sept. 16 federal byelection in the LaSalle—Émard—Verdun will be a major test for the Liberals, who are looking to reclaim the riding they’ve held since its inception in 2015.

“If the Liberals lose, it will be a major blow for them and for the prime minister,” said Daniel Béland, the director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada (MISC).

“A defeat here in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, I think will increase the pressure on Justin Trudeau to seriously think about this future.”

David Lametti’s resignation in February forced the byelection for a riding known as a Liberal stronghold. Canada’s former minister of justice and attorney general won the riding with nearly 43 per cent of the vote in the 2021 Canadian federal election.

This year though, the Liberals don’t appear to be as popular. A Mainstreet Research opinion poll conducted in July showed the Liberals with 29 per cent support in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 22 per cent and the NDP at 19 per cent.

Canada’s governing party has already lost one of its strongholds in a byelection this year. The Conservatives shocked Trudeau’s Liberals in June when Don Stewart won a nail-biter in Toronto-St. Paul’s by a few hundred votes.

“If Mr. Trudeau loses this second byelection – remember he lost the one in Toronto – if he loses this second one, it becomes a question of confidence within his own caucus, within his own party,” said political analyst Karim Boulos. “And quite frankly, I think he’d have no choice but to step down as the future candidate for the Liberal Party in the next election.”

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CityNews spoke to Verdun residents to get a sense of their voting intentions.

“I’m definitely not voting for Liberals,” Mark Maitland said. “In the last eight years, you know, I’ve seen what they have done or what they tried to do.”

“I will vote for the Bloc not because I’m a separatist, just because I don’t want to vote for the Liberals,” said André Gamba.

Others were not as decided.

“I’m always kind of a guy who’s been voting for Bloc for most of my life,” said Patrick Mainville. “But you know, I’m still thinking about it.”

“I intend to vote, but I’m not sure about who I’m voting for yet,” added Valérie Duchaine Perras.

The byelection will have the largest ballot in the history of Canadian elections with at least 91 candidates, though it is widely expected to be a three-way race between Laura Palestini for the Liberals, Louis-Philippe Sauvé for the Bloc Québécois and Craig Sauvé for the NDP.

“The Liberals are running Mrs. Palestini, who’s a municipal councillor currently, very well known in LaSalle. So I suspect she will do very well in LaSalle,” Boulos said.

“Craig Sauvé is well known at the municipal level,” added Béland.

“And the NDP has put a lot of energy into that riding. … I think the Bloc has a shot, but Craig Sauvé really helps the NDP here.”