Alberta NDP has slight lead over UCP in Calgary: poll

According to a new poll from ThinkHQ, the NDP has a 6-point edge over the UCP in battleground Calgary

Eighty-four per cent of their likely voters said they are “absolutely certain to vote” compared to 78 per cent for the UCP.

The survey finds 49 per cent of decided voters would go orange, while 43 per cent would vote for blue, six percent for the Alberta Party, and three per cent for others.

Meanwhile, only 30 per cent of those undecided say they are “very sure they will participate in the election.”

The NDP holds a larger lead over the current party in power in the city’s north, while the UCP holds a lead in the south.

The poll also has the NDP well ahead in the inner city at 25 per cent.

Accordingly, men prefer the UCP greatly, while women prefer the NDP.

Notley is also more popular with those under 35, with her approval declining with age.

On the other hand, Smith was more popular with those 55 and over and notably lower with those under 35.

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When it comes to the “pull and push” of party support in the province, half of the respondents report their decision will be “guided to one party,” while 45 per cent say their vote will be mostly because they “dislike the other parties even more.”

On the question of leadership and trust, 49 per cent of respondents say they have a positive view of Notley, while 38 per cent view Smith positively.

At the same time, 58 per cent of those interviewed say they dislike the UCP leader (49 per cent strongly dislike her) compared to 47 per cent disproving Notley (36 per cent of those strongly dislike her).

Meanwhile, Alberta Party Leader Barry Morishita received “mixed reviews,” with 56 per cent saying they could not offer a rating due to a “lack of familiarity.”

A poll from Think HQ puts the NDP in the lead in battleground Calgary. (Courtesy ThinkHQ)

ThinkHQ president Marc Henry says the numbers could mean a nine-seat pick up for the NDP in the city but that it still wouldn’t be enough to form government.

“Technically speaking, the two parties could be tied, and many of these seats look very competitive,” Henry said in a release.

“The path to victory has always been easier for the UCP, given the number of safe rural seats they hold, whereas the NDP needs to thread a few needles to get there.”

He says NDP support is more motivated and concrete among most “certain voters” compared to the UCP, with the party holding a 12-point lead over the UCP in younger voters.

“On the other hand, the UCP has strong support among older voters (traditionally more habitual in voting) and enjoys some strength outside of the inner-city south of the river,” he said.

“Their biggest challenge is a voting bloc which has typically been supportive but now feels conflicted and challenged by Danielle Smith’s leadership.”

The online poll of more than 1,000 Calgarians was done between May 19 and the 23 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three points, 19 times out of 20.

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