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Ontario could see 1,000 cases per day in October: COVID-19 modelling update

Last Updated Sep 30, 2020 at 10:33 am MDT

Ontario Premier Doug Ford stands in front of a selection of his cabinet ministers during a joint press conference with Quebec Premier Francois Legault at the Ontario-Quebec Summit, in Toronto on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young)

The Ontario government released its forecast Wednesday for how the second wave COVID-19 pandemic might unfold

The same day the province reported 625 new cases of COVID-19

Ontario reported 554 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday

TORONTO (680 NEWS) — On the heels of Ontario entering its second wave of COVID-19, the province has released new modelling, outlining why “following public health measures remains critical to stop the spread.”

The province said its plan has been designed to keep Ontarians safe, to ensure the health care system is prepared for the challenges coming with surges this fall, and the waves of COVID-19 and flu season.

Highlights from the modelling update:

  • cases are doubling approximately every 10 to 12 days;
  • after cases were initially in the 20 – 39 age group, now cases are now climbing in all ages;
  • forecasting suggests that the province could see 1,000 cases per day in the first half of October;
  • intensive Care Unit (ICU) occupancy is steady — but it is predicted that admissions will likely rise with an increase in COVID-19 patients being hospitalized;
  • the province may see between 200 and 300 patients with COVID-19 in ICU beds per day, if cases continue to increase;
In order to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and the number of new cases, the province said it remains critical for Ontarians to continue to adhere to public health measures.

It said those health measures include:

  • avoiding large gatherings;
  • washing your hands regularly with soap and water, or use alcohol-based hand sanitizer;
  • physical distancing, and maintaining physical distancing by keeping at least two metres from others outside of your social circle;
  • wearing a face covering, and to wear a face-covering when physical distancing is a challenge, or where it is mandatory to do so;
  • staying home when you’re feeling ill or keeping your child home from school when they are sick, even with mild symptoms.

Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. David Williams said, “with the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities.”

“We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve.”

The province said Williams and other public health experts will continue to closely monitor the “evolving situation” to advise when, and if, public health restrictions need further adjustment.

The province is also encouraging everyone to download the new COVID Alert app on their smart phone from the Apple and Google Play app stores.

READ ALSO: Ontario records another big jump in new COVID-19 cases

On Wednesday, the province also reported 625 new cases of COVID-19.

The province reported 554 new COVID-19 cases and four new deaths on Tuesday, after marking a record-high of 700 cases a day earlier.

The majority of new cases are in the GTA and Ottawa.

The province also announced Wednesday:

  • there are 457 more resolved cases;
  • nearly 35,800 tests have been completed;
  • there are 288 new cases in Toronto, 97 in Peel, 64 in Ottawa, and 41 in York Region;
  • 62 per cent of Wednesday’s cases are in people under the age of 40.

The Public Health Agency of Canada released its own latest modelling last week, predicting up to 9,300 deaths across the country by early October if the current trajectory of the epidemic continues.